ABSTRACT
This paper begins with a survey of recent commodity price developments that highlights the magnitude of this price surge and identifies the rapid rise in wheat prices as a key element. The analysis in this paper focuses on the extent to which domestic markets are insulated from these changes and on the resulting impacts on world prices. An econometric analysis using Error Correction Models finds stable long-term relationships between world wheat prices and most domestic prices of wheat and wheat products, but with considerable variation across countries in the rate of price transmission. A case study of the price shocks during the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine food price crisis finds that price insulation roughly doubled the overall increase in world wheat prices and raised their volatility both during periods of price increase and price decline.
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The aim of the article is to show the development of the volume and value of natural honey production, its import and export, and prices in Poland against the background of the situation in other countries in the European Union in the years 2000-2020 and as part of market changes globally. The study used the source of information from the FAOSTAT 2022 database. The production of honey in Poland, in other EU countries and around the world was characterized by an upward trend in the analyzed period. The biggest problem is China, which supplies the market with every fourth kilogram of honey product, while the EU accounts for about 13%. In the top thirty producers of natural honey, there are 11 European countries, including 9 from the EU - Poland is in fourth position. Self sufficiency in terms of honey is 60%, which is why the turnover in foreign trade of honey is dynamically increasing in terms of quantity and value. Overall, the honey trade balance in the EU was negative. The structure of honey exports and imports from and to the EU has changed, which is the result of random factors, i.e. the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and various economic, demographic, social and environmental factors.
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Cattle is one of the main items in the Brazilian productive guideline and an important export product. During the covid-19 pandemic, the price of beef occupied a prominent position in agricultural sector analyzes due to the prices increases. The objective of this research is to observe the national production behavior, exports, and domestic supply. Therefore, a domestic supply forecast was made for January 2021 to December 2022 (24 months). Based on the results obtained, it was found that the beefs supply available to the Brazilian market will not present an expressive upward behavior that compensates the evolution in beef export to international markets. Thus, a shift in the price of beef in the domestic market to higher levels may be observed.
ABSTRACT
The production of wheat, as one of the elementary and strategic nutrition crops, in North Macedonia is insufficient and cannot meet the national demands, which results with negative trade balance with import of 74,937 tons of wheat valued at 17.9 million EUR. The main goal of this paper is to analyse the influence of international markets on wheat prices in the Republic of North Macedonia. Data on the purchase price of wheat have been analysed using statistical methods and models from December 2009 to December 2021. A total of 145 monthly time series with data on the purchase price of wheat for Macedonia, the EU, Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia have been analysed and compared. The Pearson correlation coefficient shows a relatively high relationship and mutual dependence of purchase prices in Macedonia, compared to prices in the EU, Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia (over 65%). The purchase prices of wheat in Macedonia have the highest relationship and mutual dependence with the price movement in Serbia (0.78), and the lowest with the price movement in the EU (0.66). The estimated lag length of the autoregressive process (AIC, BIC, FPE and HQIC tests), on average shows 2 lags (months) later time reaction of the wheat prices in Macedonia with the comparison countries countries. The forecasting model (Granger causality test) shows that time series of wheat prices can be convenient for forecasting wheat prices in Macedonia. As of October 2021, the model clearly shows the impact of food economic crisis and unexpected, immediate rise of wheat prices as result of the post Covid-19 and Ukraine war crisis. This research and analysis model can provide significant information for the wheat price trends, forecasting and markets shock, as management and decision-making tools for producers, traders and processors, but also for the policy makers.
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This paper characterises South African sugarcane production for the 2021/22 milling season, from an agricultural perspective, to enable the industry to evaluate recent production strategies, and to identify priorities for improved efficiency. The industry's cane and sugar production during the 2021/22 season was 17.2 and 1.84 million tons, respectively. These figures show a marked drop of 5.6% for cane and 8.7% for sugar, when compared to the production figures for the 2020/21 season. The estimated industry average cane yield and quality also decreased slightly, compared to the previous season, but the main reason the drop in cane and sugar production was the limited milling capacity at several mills in KwaZulu-Natal. The civil unrest in July 2021 exacerbated the situation, causing disruptions to harvest and mill operations, as well as the subsequent closure of mills in parts of KwaZulu-Natal. The area harvested decreased considerably from an estimated 254 028 ha in 2020/21 to 241 030 ha in 2021/22 while estimated carry-over cane area increased from 24 029 ha to 32 476 ha over the same period. Rainfall was generally well above the long-term mean and well-distributed in most areas, while irrigation water supply also improved remarkably, compared to 2020 supply. Low temperatures and reduced sunshine duration caused yield reduction in the northern irrigated areas, but most rainfed areas experienced yield improvements when compared to 2020/21, because of the good rainfall. The Midlands region experienced severe frost damage during the winter of 2021, which had a negative impact on cane yield and quality. The Sugar Industry Value Chain Master Plan continued to help stabilise local sugar demand as well as reduce imports and exports at low world market prices, which all contributed to a 6% increase in the Recoverable Value (RV) price. This improved profitability for both largeand small-scale growers. COVID-19 had no noteworthy impact on sugarcane production.
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One of Indonesia's cocoa bean production centers is Southeast Sulawesi Province with a production value of 115,023 tons, with a total export value of US$ 1.5 billion in 2019. The export value of this cocoa commodity is still quite high during the Covid-19 pandemic. According to Trademap data, the value of Indonesia's cocoa exports in 2021 will reach US$1.2 billion, only down 2.9% from the previous year. The problems faced in cocoa development are the quality of the product is still low, the development of upstream and downstream cocoa products has not been optimal, and the continuity of cocoa supply has not been fulfilled. This study aims to analyze the development of cocoa commodity exports and measure the level of competitiveness of Southeast Sulawesi cocoa in the international market. The analytical method used to see the development of cocoa exports is quantitative descriptive using library research and to analyze the competitiveness of Southeast Sulawesi cocoa using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) formula. The data used in this study is time series data from 2011-2021. Based on the results of research conducted, it shows that the development of Indonesia's cocoa exports in 2011-2021 fluctuated wherein the decline and increase occurred during the last 10 years, while the development of Southeast Sulawesi cocoa exports could be seen in 2015-2021 with fluctuating increases and decreases. Meanwhile, the results of the competitiveness analysis using the RCA method on cocoa in Southeast Sulawesi during the 2011-2021 period showed a fluctuating RCA value with an average of 4.8. With a value of more than 1, it means that Southeast Sulawesi cocoa commodities have strong competitiveness or it can be said that they also have a comparative advantage.
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COVID 19 was one of the recent incidents that had a severe impact on the economy. This study discusses changes in yields in the UK stock market and major global financial markets before and after COVID 19. The results obtained in this paper can be summarized in two points. First, The arrival of covid-19 pandemic changed the entire dynamics of the stock market in UK and small or micro industries surviving were all vanished or incurred huge financial losses. The regression coefficient data shows that stocks are more volatile, and the return on investment in stocks after COVID 19 is lower than the return before COVID 19. Secondly, this paper discusses the correlation of important national financial markets. Through the VAR model and the impulse response function model, it can be seen that the correlation and volatility of global financial assets have continued to increase after COVID-19, and the volatility of investors' yields has also increased. After COVID 19, the effect of risk transfer in the financial market has been increasing, and the difficulty of investing is also increasing. This research provides advice for investors.
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This article looks at the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global palm oil market as well as the post-pandemic outlook for the market. It is indicated that, in the long-term, the post-pandemic outlook for the palm oil industry remains bright. Since the last quarter of 2019, palm oil supply and demand are back in balance, while stocks are declining. Prices have been relatively high for most of 2020 and 2021. Also discussed are the proven benefits of palm oil and the opportunity of the palm oil sector to achieve UN goals.
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The 1991 Indian reforms aimed at economic liberalization, as a part of its economic structural adjustment, and transformed the nation's economy into a more global market-based and service-oriented system, which revolutionized its agricultural trade facet. The new regime paved the way for the self-reliant Indian agriculture to expand its roots into the spheres of global competitiveness and export orientation. India enjoys competitive advantage in the international market and considering the growth in India's exports of major agricultural commodities. This study employed Constant Market Share model to analyze the export performance of its various facets such as diversification, instability, elasticity, competitiveness, etc. The findings revealed that India's growth performance of major agricultural commodities' exports both in terms of quantity and value was found satisfactory (except wheat and cashew nuts, shelled (quantity)) during 1991-2020. During the recent past decade, i.e., 2011-2020, World Demand Effect (WDE) is the main sources of India's agricultural export performance (due to general rise/fall in world demand given a constant market share of the India, unlike Market Distribution Effect (MDE), Commodity Composition Effect (CCE) and the Residual Competitiveness Effect (RCE) due to high inconsistency arising out of changes in external environment). Both MDE and RCE with respect to commodity-wise exports and CCE and RCE with respect to country-wise exports are found negative for majority of commodities and countries (markets) respectively. Consistently negative CCE for exports of agricultural products, total and across major export destinations were found more disheartening and this should deserve special attention. So, it is imperative to boost the export competitiveness of agricultural commodities from India and the future prospects of exports depend on how much the latest surge in COVID-19 infections in India affects its agricultural production and global demand conditions.
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The economic crisis caused by the external shock in the form of the COVID-19 pandemic had the character of a systemic risk affecting all markets in the world. Due to high levels of economic integration, negative spillover effects were inevitable. Indirect effects particularly affected the agricultural sector with simultaneous shocks on the supply and demand side. The research includes an analysis of negative distortions of a macroeconomic nature in order to show in the most adequate way the vital importance of the agricultural sector at the level of the European Union (EU). Given the acute nature of the economic crisis, interventions at the EU level (and in countries) targeting exit strategies have a key role to play. The analysis of the implemented strategies in the EU in 2020 indicates that: (a) economic policymakers have minimized the gap in the implementation of measures, by applying generous and prompt programs aimed at the agricultural sector;(b) there is a need to move from urgent rescue programs to "no regrets" programs that can improve the resilience of the agricultural sector to future external shocks in the long run.
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Tourism and allied sectors are interdependent entities contributing to foreign exchange earnings of the overall GDP of the country. Tourism and allied sectors walk hand in hand to attract and serve tourist at the destination. The outbreak of COVID-19 compelled the countries to seal their boundaries;levy restriction on visa & foreign tourist and social distancing. Fear in the mind of people about the virus has impacted the movement of the tourist in the domestic & international market leading to revenue loss for tourism sector. The process of unlock 1.0 has started but tourist has many expectations post lockdown about the mode of travel, the travel agency which will plan itinerary, hotel they are going to stay, whether all sectors are following the strict rules & regulations to provide safe & hygienic environment to its tourist. The questionnaire will be circulated by Simple Random sampling method among the residents in Maharashtra through Google forms- digital survey app medium. So the study has attempted to explore and analyze the impact of lockdown on tourism & the changes in the tourist behavior and choice patterns post lockdown from the tourism service providers.
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The Philippines was among the most infected countries in East Asia at the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study analyzes how international trade on various margins was affected by the country's own lockdown policies and those of trading partners. Using a monthly series of product- by-country data for the period from January 2019 to December 2020 and an event study design, the paper shows that domestic lockdown measures did not affect international trade but external lockdowns affected both ex- ports and imports. The introduction of lockdown measures by trading partners affected imports more than exports, leading to 7 and 56 percent monthly average drops in export and import values, respectively. Restrictions on internal movements and international travel controls in partner countries were responsible for the drop in exports. The slump in imports was because of workplace closure, stayat- home requirements, restrictions on internal movement, and international travel controls by trading partners of the Philip- pines. Intermediate goods were the key driver of the drop in imports following foreign lockdowns, reflecting supply disruptions in backward global value chain participation. At the same time, exports of intermediate goods were more resilient to the lockdown policies. Finally, both exports and imports were more affected at the extensive margin than the intensive margin, as lockdown measures hindered interactions among people, in turn reducing the potential of businesses to create new relationships and launch new products in foreign markets. Overall, diversified and geographically dispersed suppliers can help countries adjust better to future disruptions.
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This report presents organized and structured information on soybean trade indicators across geographical space and through time. The indicators considered are exports, imports and prices. These also are presented at the by-product level. The levels of aggregation are global, U.S. and North Dakota. The information of each indicator is presented in the form of trends and descriptive statistics. The former reveals the direction of the growth, while the latter reveals the magnitude of expectations. The descriptive statistics are represented by the mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and share contribution to the total. The report is presented in six sections: (I) global temporal soybean trade, (II) global spatial soybean export, (III) global spatial soybean import, (IV) U.S. temporal soybean export, (V) U.S. spatial soybean export and (VI) U.S. state level soybean export. At the global level, the trends of the indicators are presented in addition to the descriptive statistics of the top 15 exporting and importing countries. The trends and descriptive statistics for the top 15 exporting states also are provided at the U.S. level. This report is important because it serves as an informational guide on exports, our competitors for exports and potential markets for soybeans to our producers. In the current environment, the success (productivity and net farm income stability) of agricultural business depends on accurate prediction of potential demand for soybeans and their products to help producers in making decisions for domestic or foreign markets. Hence, having a comprehensive and accurate database on exports and imports at the global, national and state levels will enable producers in decisionmaking with confidence. To formulate trade policies related to the international market, the trends and the descriptive statistics are useful to producers in identifying variations in demand for soybeans and their products. For decision makers, this information is helpful in the development of risk management tools for potential export losses due to risky events such as politically driven tariffs and uncertain events such as COVID-19. Finally, in the years of decline, identifying sources of variation or risk in changing consumer preferences, genetically modified restrictive index, trade facilitation and prosperity indexes is important. The study reveals that: Global Trade * The soybean market has shifted to processed products. * Soybean grain, residue and crude oil are primary with an increase in flour. * Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Canada are the major competitors with the U.S. for soybean grains. * China, Japan, Netherlands, Spain and Germany are the major destinations for soybean grain. * Soybean grain prices have been on the decline in recent years. U.S. Trade vii * China, Mexico, Japan, Indonesia and Netherlands are the major destinations for U.S. soybean grains. * Turkey, Russia, Argentina and Italy are among the top 15 importers of soybean grains but not part of the top 15 U.S. export destinations. U.S. State Trade * Our state-level estimates of trade are consistent with U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) exports. In contrast, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) under- and overestimates state exports because they are based on the location of the port. * Our production-adjusted state export estimates suggest the major exporters of soybeans are Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, South Dakota, North Dakota and Kansas. North Dakota Trade * North Dakota soybean exports are underestimated by the USDA FAS. * For instance, the production adjusted export value predicts a value of $885,365,842 in 2018, while the ERS method predicted $887,896,380 for North Dakota. On the other hand, the FAS method presents a value of $62,543,314.
ABSTRACT
After the corona virus pandemic is over, we can expect significant changes in management systems due to a further decrease in industrial commodity trade and, simultaneously, an increase in service trade, digital technology services in particular. The consequences of this crisis will be evident in all segments of economy and will relate to globalisation process, production and international trade. Global COVID-19 pandemic has caused a severe supply and demand crisis of both products and services, on local and international markets. In economies, which base their production on low costs and low inventory and on last minute supply of raw materials and spare parts, supply chains have been disrupted and all this has resulted in major disorders on the market. The problem is effusing from one market to another. Reduced production has led to a sharp decrease in consumption, which is a result of decreased profits. In 2020 world trade has fallen by 9%, foreign investments by 40% and service trade by 60%. For these reasons, it is important to look closely into what has been going on, what is going to be happening, and how it is going to affect business organizations, their stability, safety and business performance in the long run. In order to analyse the environment, facts and factors which affect, both directly and indirectly, our business activities in this globalized society and economy, it is crucial to apply well-structured analytical concepts and to conduct them systematically, especially in these difficult periods of crisis. The application of analytical concepts (analyses) enables business organizations to prepare appropriately for the challenges they are going to face. The use of modern analyses like PEST, BCG matrix, VRIO and SWOT provide essential information about the real level of potentials and resources that an organization has at their disposal. Considering the dynamics of technological and techical changes, and trends of consumers' habit and need changes, analyses are becoming increasingly important in terms of monitoring our internal environment, analysing product and service portfolios and analysing value chains. This paper explores the application and results of the use of modern analyses in the business organizations in Croatia, with a focus on use in times of sharp socio-economic changes, which were caused by the recent crisis.
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The article discusses the state of agriculture in the context of a pandemic, as well as factors that influenced the strengthening of the competitive advantages of the industry. The study compared indicators and factors of agricultural competitiveness in 2020 in comparison with the previous period. The analysis showed that agriculture was less affected by restrictions due to the coronavirus than other sectors of the economy, therefore, the main trends in production and the formation of gross value added remained during the pandemic. The study noted that a 3.5% decrease in real money income of the population in 2020 affected the purchasing power of income and the structure of consumption of certain types of food, which could lead to a redistribution of production resources. The article notes the impact of the devaluation of the national currency, which contributed to the rise in the cost of imported food and the strengthening of the competitive advantage of domestic producers in the domestic market and the export of agricultural products. As a result, despite many negative trends, Russian agriculture has demonstrated high stability and positive dynamics of development, strengthening its position in the world market. Positive factors were inelastic demand for food and significant government support, favorable weather conditions, which contributed to agricultural production and an increase in export volumes. As the analysis has shown, the competitive advantages of the industry manifested themselves not only in comparison with other types of economic activity, but also in strengthening the country's position in the world food market, where the country is becoming one of the leading exporters.
ABSTRACT
As a wheat exporter, Russia ranks first in the world. Almost half of domestic wheat production is exported due to its competitiveness characterized by the relatively high level of comparative advantage. According to the study in the context of export parity and significant export volumes, domestic wheat prices follow world market prices and largely depend on major importers' demand. Global wheat prices have been rising consistently over the past months caused by the recovery in Chinese economy, adverse weather conditions, disruptions in food value chains and liquidity injections in the USA and EU economies to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. To restrain the rise in domestic prices, Russian government decided to introduced a floating export duty on wheat. This mechanism in the context of high world grain prices, economic stagnation, shrinking disposable incomes and increased risks of further devaluation of the national currency would lead to deterioration of the financial and economic situation, reduction of investment opportunities and technological lagging of Russian wheat producers behind their competitors in the world market. In this respect, Russian government efforts should be focused on increasing production and improving the competitiveness of wheat instead of restricting exports. A comprehensive set of measures regulating the wheat market also implies subsidizing wheat consumers, support for the development of transport and logistics infrastructure, and targeted assistance to vulnerable groups of the population. Such approaches would support grain consumers while respecting the interests of producers and exporters, thereby helping to achieve the national agri-food export target of USD 45 billion in the coming ten years.
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The last year was not only marked by the deadly COVID-19 pandemic, but also the most devastating animal disease to date, African swine fever (ASF). The former led to many disruptions in the global meat market, such as lockdowns, meat packing plant closures, supply shortages and both delays and bans in global shipments. The latter led to increased imports of pork by China and new export opportunities for some countries and bans for others as the disease continued to spread across South East Asia and Europe. These projections were prepared as part of FAPRI's 2021 outlook for agricultural markets, and are based on information available in January 2021. Projections for the U.S. crop and livestock sectors are summarized in FAPRI Report #01-21, and a companion report from colleagues at the University of Nevada, Reno summarizes the outlook for international grain and oilseed markets (both can be accessed at https://www.fapri.missouri.edu/publication/2021-us-agricultural-market-outlook/). The baseline assumes a continuation of government policies in place in January 2021, and a recovery in the global economy as forecast by IHS Markit. U.S. pork exports to China reached a record $2.1 billion in 2020 as China increased its imports from the U.S. and other exporters. China also increased its imports of U.S. soybeans and corn in 2020 to supply feed to help China's pork producers expand production again. In spite of the increased purchases, China's imports of U.S. agricultural products fell short of the 2020 commitments laid out in the "Phase One" trade agreement between the two countries. When these projections were initially prepared, the global markets were expected to start recovering from ASF in 2021. However, recent outbreaks in China suggest that it may be a few more years until sow and hog herds return to pre-2018 levels. Likewise, with access to widespread vaccinations worldwide taking longer than initially thought and with the spread of new variants, this may also lead to more volatility in global markets as countries try to return to more normalcy post-pandemic. As such, the level of uncertainty in global livestock product markets is greater than usual. These projections are intended to serve as a benchmark for what the world may look like in the next 10 years given a particular set of assumptions, and can serve as a point of reference for scenario analysis.
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Currently, the tourism industry continues to outpace the global economy despite deteriorating global economic prospects, tensions in international trade, social worries, geopolitical uncertainty, instability and the COVID-19 pandemic. The article is aimed at identifying modern trends of marketing research as part of the complex of marketing instruments in the tourism sphere. To achieve this aim, the article uses the following research methods: -logical;situational analysis;mean, absolute and relative values;comparison, graphic, sociological;statistical analysis;economic-mathematical;expert surveys and estimations. Based on the data of the World Tourism Organization, the indicators of development of the world market of tourist services are analyzed. Performed were the following: analysis of the dynamics of the number of subjects of tourism activity (tour operators and travel agents) in Ukraine;total average number of full-time employees;income from the provision of tourist services;operating expenses for the provision of tourist services;number of tourists served by tour operators and travel agents in Ukraine. The content of marketing research is disclosed as a multi-stage process, which should include the collection, registration and analysis of data in the sphere of tourism business. Marketing researches should be conducted according to 8 stages: determining the problem;development of the concept of research;cabinet marketing research;field market research;analysis of market conditions (supply and demand);research of foreign markets;simulation modeling;formation of a marketing information system. In order to determine the rating of tour operators of the mass segment of the tourism market in 2020, a questionnaire containing 16 questions is specified. Its results can be used when evaluating tour operators in terms of customer comfort and cooperation with travel agents. It is proved that marketing research in the tourism industry is advisable to be carried out systematically. This will provide for substantiating and elaborating managerial solutions in order to maximize the satisfaction of the needs of consumers of tourist services and solve the problems of significant seasonal fluctuations in demand.
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The global obesity issue is often linked to the use of added sugars, but this relationship is unproven and there is no internationally recognised evidence that points to a direct link between the consumption of sugar and excess weight. However, in the sphere of public opinion, it is perceived as being beyond question. Furthermore, the objective of reducing added/free sugar from our basic diet has taken on a pathway of its own. This view is not supported by scientific research or published guidelines and should be challenged. Governments have largely chosen to target a reduction in the sugar content of soft drinks as a public health objective. This has been done through taxing sales or sugar content. Our analysis finds that there is a statistically significant impact on sugar consumption in some countries, mainly through the voluntary reformulations undertaken by beverage companies. But that this impact is small in terms of the volume of sugar eliminated. The study sees the application of similar taxes on food manufacturing as challenging, as sugar is used as a functional ingredient and food formulations are inherently more complex. From a public heath perspective, the study notes both a lack of historic evidence for a correlation between sugar consumption growth and obesity as well as a divergence between public health objectives and the current use of sugar. The study also considers behavioural aspects for consumers and food and beverage producers, surmising that the tax effect on consumers is partly short term while producers remain broadly focused on sales and marketing objectives, with public health changes seen as an industry-wide issue. More broadly, the study also notes that COVID-19 will skew results for many years to come. The report also considers the supply and demand dynamics of the sugar market in view of slowing demand, partly contributed to by sugar taxes. With low elasticity for both consumption and production, and with limited growth in the former, the implication is volatile world market prices. Sugar industries more than ever before will need to embrace diversification options such as bio energy and other bio products to ensure a sustainable future in a slowing sugar demand growth environment.
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Research question: In this short article, the researchers explore whether highly diversified professional football clubs, from an investor perspective, are better prepared for an unpredictable global crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic than undiversified clubs. Research methods: The researchers apply event study methodology to analyze stock returns of football clubs during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.